Leiston vs Bury Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Leiston and 1.35 for Bury Town, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Leiston the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws roughly 63% of the time.

Model pick

Leiston or Draw

62.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Leiston win37%

Draw26%

Bury Town win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–19.1%
1–09.1%
1–28.3%
2–18.3%

Why the model likes this

Leiston home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leiston to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Leiston and 1.35 for Bury Town, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Leiston

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rushall Olympic · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Stortford · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Anstey Nomads · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gorleston · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Aveley · 4-2 (W)

Bury Town

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.