· Analysis updated 04:34 UTC
Levante vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Levante and 1.72 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Atletico Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws roughly 51% of the time.
Model pick
Atletico Madrid to Win
49.0% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–19.0%
- 0–27.8%
- 2–16.8%
Why the model likes this
Levante home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Madrid away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atletico Madrid to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 27% / 24% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Levante and 1.72 for Atletico Madrid, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Levante
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Castellón · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-05T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-01T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Albacete · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Al-Qadisiyah FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 1-2 (L)
Atletico Madrid
- 2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 1-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Sevilla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.