Geodis Park · Referee Robert Vincze · Analysis updated 21:54 UTC
Liverpool vs Sunderland Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.74 expected goals for Liverpool and 2.46 for Sunderland, a combined total of 6.21. That distribution gives Liverpool the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 88% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws roughly 38% of the time.
Model pick
Liverpool to Win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
3.74 – 2.46
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–25.3%
- 4–25.0%
- 3–34.4%
- 3–14.3%
- 2–24.3%
Why the model likes this
Liverpool home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sunderland away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Liverpool to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 15% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.74 goals for Liverpool and 2.46 for Sunderland, a combined 6.21 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Liverpool
- 2026-08-09T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Monaco · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-02T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-07-29T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunderland · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 1-1 (D)
Sunderland
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-30T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League - Summer Series table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Leeds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.