RZD Arena · Referee Kirill Levnikov, Russia · Analysis updated 02:58 UTC
Lokomotiv vs Akhmat Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Lokomotiv and 0.79 for Akhmat, a combined total of 1.85. That distribution gives Lokomotiv the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.
Model pick
Lokomotiv or Draw
73.5% probability
Expected goals
1.07 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.7%
- 0–015.7%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.3%
- 2–08.9%
Why the model likes this
Akhmat away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lokomotiv to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 32% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Lokomotiv and 0.79 for Akhmat, a combined 1.85 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 28% and both teams to score at 36%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Recent form
Lokomotiv
Akhmat
- 2026-08-15T17:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Krasnodar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Fakel · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-05T17:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Krasnodar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Spartak Moscow · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Krasnodar | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 2 | CSKA Moscow | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 3 | Zenit | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Baltika | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Dinamo Makhachkala | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | FC Orenburg | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 8 | Rubin | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 9 | FC Rostov | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Dynamo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Rodina Moskva | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Akhmat | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 14 | Krylia Sovetov | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 15 | Akron | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 2 |
| 16 | Fakel | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.