Lorient vs Marseille Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Lorient and 1.74 for Marseille, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Marseille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Marseille or Draw

66.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.49 – 1.74

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Lorient win33%

Draw23%

Marseille win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.2%
1–28.9%
2–17.6%
0–16.9%
2–26.7%

Why the model likes this

Lorient home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marseille to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 33% / 23% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Lorient and 1.74 for Marseille, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Lorient

2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Elversberg · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Angers · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-04T09:00:00.000Z · H vs UNFP · 5-1 (W)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Guingamp · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Nantes · 1-0 (W)

Marseille

2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · Lorient 2-0 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2025-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · Lorient 0-4 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2024-05-12T19:00:00.000Z · Lorient 1-3 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2023-12-10T19:45:00.000Z · Lorient 2-4 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2023-04-09T18:45:00.000Z · Lorient 0-0 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2023-01-14T18:00:00.000Z · Lorient 1-3 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2022-05-08T15:05:00.000Z · Lorient 0-3 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2021-10-17T18:45:00.000Z · Lorient 1-4 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2021-04-17T15:00:00.000Z · Lorient 2-3 Marseille (Ligue 1)
2020-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · Lorient 0-1 Marseille (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	34	24	4	6	45	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	31	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	15	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	13	60
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	18	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	9	59
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	6	54
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	11	53
9	Lorient	34	11	12	11	-3	45
10	Toulouse	33	12	8	13	1	44
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	-3	44
12	Stade Brestois 29	34	10	9	15	-12	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	-19	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	-12	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	-10	34
16	Nice	34	7	11	16	-23	32
17	Nantes	33	5	8	20	-23	23
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	-44	17

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.