Loudoun United vs Sporting JAX Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Loudoun United and 1.18 for Sporting JAX, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Loudoun United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Loudoun United or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Loudoun United win44%

Draw26%

Sporting JAX win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Loudoun United home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting JAX away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Loudoun United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Loudoun United and 1.18 for Sporting JAX, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Loudoun United

2026-08-08T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Charleston Battery · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Hartford Athletic · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-25T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Indy Eleven · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-18T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Tampa Bay Rowdies · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-11T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · 0-2 (L)

Sporting JAX

2026-08-02T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Sacramento Republic · 0-5 (L)
2026-07-26T01:00:00.000Z · A vs El Paso Locomotive · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-18T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Brooklyn · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-15T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-08T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Austin · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.