Marseille vs Rennes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.08 expected goals for Marseille and 1.47 for Rennes, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Marseille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws roughly 48% of the time.

Model pick

Marseille to Win

51.7% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

2.08 – 1.47

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Marseille win52%

Draw21%

Rennes win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

2–19.1%
1–18.8%
2–26.7%
1–26.5%
3–16.3%

Why the model likes this

Marseille home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rennes away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Marseille to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 21% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.08 goals for Marseille and 1.47 for Rennes, a combined 3.55 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Marseille

2026-08-14T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nimes · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 3-1 (W)

Rennes

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunderland · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-4 (L)
2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford U21 · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Galatasaray · 3-3 (D)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Brugge KV · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	34	24	4	6	45	76
2	Lens	34	22	4	8	31	70
3	Lille	34	18	7	9	15	61
4	Lyon	34	18	6	10	13	60
5	Marseille	34	18	5	11	18	59
6	Rennes	34	17	8	9	9	59
7	Monaco	34	16	6	12	6	54
8	Strasbourg	34	15	8	11	11	53
9	Lorient	34	11	12	11	-3	45
10	Toulouse	33	12	8	13	1	44
11	Paris FC	34	11	11	12	-3	44
12	Stade Brestois 29	34	10	9	15	-12	39
13	Angers	34	9	9	16	-19	36
14	Le Havre	34	7	14	13	-12	35
15	Auxerre	34	8	10	16	-10	34
16	Nice	34	7	11	16	-23	32
17	Nantes	33	5	8	20	-23	23
18	Metz	34	3	8	23	-44	17

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.