Mārupe vs Smiltene Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Mārupe and 1.18 for Smiltene, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Mārupe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Mārupe or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Mārupe win44%

Draw26%

Smiltene win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Mārupe home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Smiltene away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.

Recent form

Mārupe

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Super Nova 2 · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Leevon / PPK · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Skanste · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rēzekne FA · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Metta / LU · 0-4 (L)

Smiltene

2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Valmiera / BSS · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs JFK Ventspils · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rīgas FS II · 3-5 (L)
2026-07-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rēzekne FA · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Mārupe · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-04T13:00:00.000Z · Mārupe 2-1 Smiltene (1. Liga)
2025-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · Mārupe 0-3 Smiltene (1. Liga)
2025-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · Mārupe 2-1 Smiltene (1. Liga)
2024-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · Mārupe 0-0 Smiltene (1. Liga)
2024-06-22T15:00:00.000Z · Mārupe 3-1 Smiltene (Cup)
2024-06-15T12:00:00.000Z · Mārupe 1-0 Smiltene (1. Liga)
2022-06-11T13:00:00.000Z · Mārupe 3-3 Smiltene (Cup)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.