Modena vs Frosinone Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Modena and 1.36 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Frosinone the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Frosinone or Draw

70.8% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.06 – 1.36

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Modena win29%

Draw27%

Frosinone win44%

Double chance 1X

56%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–112.8%
0–112.1%
1–09.4%
0–08.9%
1–28.7%

Why the model likes this

Modena home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Frosinone to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 29% / 27% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Modena and 1.36 for Frosinone, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 49%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Modena

2026-08-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Venezia · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vis Pesaro · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Trento · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cagliari · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Virtus Bolzano · 5-0 (W)

Frosinone

2026-08-09T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lazio · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-01T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-29T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sambenedettese · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Ascoli · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-22T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone U20 · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Venezia	38	24	10	4	46	82
2	Frosinone	38	23	12	3	42	81
3	Monza	38	22	10	6	29	76
4	Palermo	38	20	12	6	28	72
5	Catanzaro	38	15	14	9	11	59
6	Modena	38	15	10	13	13	55
7	Juve Stabia	38	11	18	9	-1	51
8	Avellino	38	13	10	15	-12	49
9	Mantova	38	13	7	18	-12	46
10	Padova	38	12	10	16	-10	46
11	Cesena	38	12	10	16	-11	46
12	Carrarese	38	10	14	14	-5	44
13	Sampdoria	38	11	11	16	-13	44
14	Virtus Entella	38	10	12	16	-15	42
15	Empoli	38	9	14	15	-7	41
16	Sudtirol	38	8	17	13	-10	41
17	Bari	38	10	10	18	-22	40
18	Reggiana	38	9	10	19	-20	37
19	Spezia	38	8	11	19	-16	35
20	Pescara	38	7	14	17	-15	35

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.