Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas · Analysis updated 05:20 UTC
Moreirense vs Santa Clara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.38 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Moreirense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.
Model pick
Moreirense or Draw
65.3% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.4%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–17.7%
Why the model likes this
Moreirense home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Moreirense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Moreirense and 1.38 for Santa Clara, a combined 2.89 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Moreirense
- 2026-08-09T19:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Braga · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Amarante · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs GIL Vicente · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-22T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Clara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs AVS · 2-2 (D)
Santa Clara
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-22T10:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 1-2 Santa Clara (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-01-24T15:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 1-0 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-08-17T17:00:00.000Z · Moreirense 1-0 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2025-03-09T15:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 1-1 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-10-05T14:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 1-0 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2024-07-24T14:00:00.000Z · Moreirense 2-4 Santa Clara (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-01-22T15:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 0-2 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-08-15T19:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 2-2 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
- 2021-07-14T00:00:00.000Z · Moreirense 0-3 Santa Clara (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-04-21T14:30:00.000Z · Moreirense 0-0 Santa Clara (Primeira Liga)
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Santa Clara | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Maritimo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Arouca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Estrela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Famalicao | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Estoril | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Moreirense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Benfica | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Nacional | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Academico Viseu | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Vitória SC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Rio Ave | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.