Notodden vs Mjondalen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Notodden and 1.10 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.46. That distribution gives Notodden the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

Notodden or Draw

69.4% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Notodden win42%

Draw27%

Mjondalen win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.8%
1–011.6%
0–19.5%
2–18.7%
0–08.6%

Why the model likes this

Mjondalen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Notodden to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Notodden and 1.10 for Mjondalen, a combined 2.46 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 45% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

Notodden

Mjondalen

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eik-Tønsberg · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kvik Halden · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Notodden · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Brattvåg · 5-3 (W)
2026-06-27T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bjarg · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Division - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	jerv	15	11	2	2	17	35
2	Brattvåg	16	10	2	4	16	32
3	Mjondalen	16	10	2	4	10	32
4	Kvik Halden	16	9	3	4	9	30
5	Notodden	16	8	3	5	8	27
6	Træff	15	7	4	4	5	25
7	Bjarg	15	8	1	6	3	25
8	Sotra	15	7	3	5	15	24
9	Arendal	16	5	5	6	-2	20
10	Pors Grenland	15	5	4	6	-3	19
11	Sandviken	15	4	2	9	-12	14
12	Lysekloster	16	3	5	8	-14	14
13	Vidar	16	1	3	12	-30	6
14	Eik-Tønsberg	16	1	1	14	-22	4

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.