Campo Domingos Carrilho Patalino · Analysis updated 04:36 UTC
O Elvas vs Sertanense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for O Elvas and 1.18 for Sertanense, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives O Elvas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
O Elvas or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
O Elvas home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sertanense away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates O Elvas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for O Elvas and 1.18 for Sertanense, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
O Elvas
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Moncarapachense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Comércio Indústria · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Serpa · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-03-22T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcochetense · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Oriental Lisboa · 0-0 (D)
Sertanense
- 2025-04-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Benfica Castelo Branco · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-04-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcains · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-03-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Os Marialvas · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-03-16T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mortágua · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-03-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arronches e Benfica · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fátima | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Sertanense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | UD da Serra | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | O Elvas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Atlético Malveira | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | AD Nogueirense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Oliveira Hospital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Fazendense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Nazarenos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Mortágua | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Os Marialvas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | FC Alverca II | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Naval 1893 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.