Puskas Arena · Referee D. Siebert · Analysis updated 01:51 UTC
Paris Saint Germain vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.45 for Arsenal, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
Paris Saint Germain or Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–07.6%
- 0–17.0%
Why the model likes this
Arsenal away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paris Saint Germain to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 24% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.45 for Arsenal, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Recent form
Paris Saint Germain
Arsenal
- 2026-08-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 24 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 21 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 18 |
| 4 | Tottenham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 5 | Barcelona | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 9 | Real Madrid | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 10 | Inter | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 15 |
| 11 | Paris Saint Germain | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 14 |
| 13 | Juventus | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 14 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 17 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 18 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 19 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 20 | Galatasaray | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 21 | Monaco | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -6 | 10 |
| 22 | Qarabag | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 10 |
| 23 | Bodo/Glimt | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 24 | Benfica | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 25 | Marseille | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 26 | Pafos | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 27 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 9 |
| 28 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 29 | Athletic Club | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 8 |
| 30 | Napoli | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 31 | FC Copenhagen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 8 |
| 32 | Ajax | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 6 |
| 33 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
| 34 | Slavia Praha | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 3 |
| 35 | Villarreal | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 1 |
| 36 | Kairat Almaty | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.