Red Bull Arena · Referee Omar Abdulkadir Artan, Somalia · Analysis updated 23:47 UTC
Paris Saint Germain vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.18 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Paris Saint Germain the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Paris Saint Germain or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Aston Villa away threat
Scored in 8 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paris Saint Germain to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.18 for Aston Villa, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Paris Saint Germain
Aston Villa
- 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Paris Saint Germain · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs BG Pathum United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.