Parma vs Atalanta Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.72 expected goals for Parma and 1.22 for Atalanta, a combined total of 1.93. That distribution gives Atalanta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws roughly 52% of the time.

Model pick

Atalanta to Win

48.1% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

0.72 – 1.22

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Parma win22%

Draw30%

Atalanta win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals58%

Over 2.5 goals31%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score36%

Correct score

0–117.6%
0–014.5%
1–112.6%
0–210.7%
1–010.3%

Why the model likes this

Parma home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atalanta away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atalanta to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 22% / 30% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.72 goals for Parma and 1.22 for Atalanta, a combined 1.93 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Recent form

Parma

2026-08-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Catania · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sampdoria · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Iraklis 1908 · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sassuolo · 0-0 (D)

Atalanta

2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Schalke 04 · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Feyenoord · 1-2 (L)
2026-07-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Arezzo · 3-2 (W)
2026-05-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Fiorentina · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	38	27	6	5	54	87
2	Napoli	38	23	7	8	22	76
3	AS Roma	38	23	4	11	28	73
4	Como	38	20	11	7	36	71
5	AC Milan	38	20	10	8	18	70
6	Juventus	38	19	12	7	27	69
7	Atalanta	38	15	14	9	15	59
8	Bologna	38	16	8	14	3	56
9	Lazio	38	14	12	12	1	54
10	Udinese	38	14	8	16	-3	50
11	Sassuolo	38	14	7	17	-4	49
12	Torino	38	12	9	17	-19	45
13	Parma	38	11	12	15	-18	45
14	Cagliari	38	11	10	17	-13	43
15	Fiorentina	38	9	15	14	-9	42
16	Genoa	38	10	11	17	-10	41
17	Lecce	38	10	8	20	-22	38
18	Cremonese	38	8	10	20	-25	34
19	Hellas Verona	38	3	12	23	-36	21
20	Pisa	38	2	12	24	-45	18

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.