Pirin Razlog vs Botev Ihtiman Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Pirin Razlog and 1.43 for Botev Ihtiman, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Botev Ihtiman the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.

Model pick

Botev Ihtiman or Draw

67.4% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.24 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Pirin Razlog win33%

Draw26%

Botev Ihtiman win42%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.3%
0–19.9%
1–28.8%
1–08.6%
2–17.6%

Why the model likes this

Pirin Razlog home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Botev Ihtiman to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 33% / 26% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Pirin Razlog and 1.43 for Botev Ihtiman, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Pirin Razlog

2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Minyor Pernik · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Belasitsa · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-30T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Strumska Slava · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-21T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Germaneya · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Oborishte · 1-3 (L)

Botev Ihtiman

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Southwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Rilski Sportist	34	25	5	4	35	80
2	Strumska Slava	34	20	5	9	26	65
3	Slavia Sofia II	34	17	6	11	24	57
4	Botev Ihtiman	34	14	9	11	13	51
5	Kyustendil	34	15	5	14	-3	50
6	CSKA Sofia III	34	15	5	14	6	50
7	Oborishte	34	14	7	13	6	49
8	Balkan Botevgrad	34	13	10	11	5	49
9	Septemvri Sofia II	34	13	9	12	7	48
10	Septemvri Simitli	34	13	8	13	1	47
11	Kostinbrod	34	14	5	15	-4	47
12	Pirin Razlog	34	13	6	15	-5	45
13	Bansko	34	11	11	12	-6	44
14	Slivnishki geroy	34	11	9	14	-9	42
15	Levski Sofia II	34	11	7	16	-14	40
16	Pirin Gotse Delchev	34	11	4	19	-27	37
17	Germaneya	34	4	6	24	-37	18
18	Vitosha Bistritsa	34	11	5	18	-18	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.