· Analysis updated 02:44 UTC
Raith Rovers vs Livingston Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Raith Rovers and 1.00 for Livingston, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Raith Rovers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.
Model pick
Raith Rovers or Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–110.5%
- 2–08.2%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Raith Rovers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 29% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Raith Rovers and 1.00 for Livingston, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 45%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
Raith Rovers or Draw is the headline pick at 71% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Raith Rovers
Livingston
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Ayr Utd | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Stenhousemuir | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Raith Rovers | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Livingston | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Dunfermline | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 7 | Inverness CT | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 8 | Arbroath | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 9 | Queen's Park | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 10 | Morton | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.