Estadio Santiago Bernabéu · Referee J. Martinez · Analysis updated 21:55 UTC
Real Madrid vs Athletic Club Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for Real Madrid and 0.97 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Real Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws roughly 44% of the time.
Model pick
Real Madrid to Win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
1.77 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.3%
- 1–111.1%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.4%
Why the model likes this
Real Madrid home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Athletic Club away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Madrid to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 23% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for Real Madrid and 0.97 for Athletic Club, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Real Madrid
- 2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 4-2 (W)
Athletic Club
- 2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Atalanta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Burgos · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Santander · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaves | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Villarreal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Atletico Madrid | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Real Betis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Celta Vigo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Valencia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Espanyol | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Athletic Club | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Sevilla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Elche | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Levante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Racing Santander | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Malaga | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.