Sportpark Klagenfurt Kunstrasen · Referee J. Weinberger · Analysis updated 21:54 UTC
Real Madrid vs Fiorentina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Real Madrid and 1.63 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Real Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws roughly 41% of the time.
Model pick
Real Madrid to Win
59.1% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 1–16.1%
- 3–25.7%
Why the model likes this
Real Madrid home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Madrid to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 18% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Real Madrid and 1.63 for Fiorentina, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 80% and both teams to score at 74%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Recent form
Real Madrid
- 2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-28T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-05-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 4-2 (W)
Fiorentina
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.