Rēzekne FA vs Mārupe Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Rēzekne FA and 1.75 for Mārupe, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Mārupe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

Mārupe to Win

45.3% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Rēzekne FA win32%

Draw23%

Mārupe win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.4%
1–29.1%
2–17.4%
0–17.3%
2–26.5%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Mārupe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 32% / 23% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Rēzekne FA and 1.75 for Mārupe, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
Mārupe to Win is the headline pick at 45% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Rēzekne FA

Mārupe

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Super Nova 2 · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-08T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Leevon / PPK · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Skanste · 2-4 (L)
2026-07-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Rēzekne FA · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Metta / LU · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.