Salisbury vs Horsham Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Salisbury and 0.72 for Horsham, a combined total of 2.26. That distribution gives Salisbury the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws roughly 43% of the time.

Model pick

Salisbury to Win

56.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.54 – 0.72

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Salisbury win57%

Draw26%

Horsham win18%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–016.0%
2–012.3%
1–111.6%
0–010.4%
2–18.9%

Why the model likes this

Horsham away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Salisbury to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 26% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Salisbury and 0.72 for Horsham, a combined 2.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 39% and both teams to score at 40%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.

Recent form

Salisbury

Horsham

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Salisbury · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Torquay · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Worthing · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sutton Utd · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eastbourne Town · 3-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League - South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Weston-super-Mare	2	2	0	0	6	6
2	Dagenham & Redbridge	2	2	0	0	2	6
3	AFC Totton	2	2	0	0	2	6
4	Salisbury	2	1	1	0	5	4
5	Hemel Hempstead Town	2	1	1	0	2	4
6	Truro City	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Torquay	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Folkestone Invicta	1	1	0	0	4	3
9	Tonbridge Angels	2	1	0	1	3	3
10	Maidstone Utd	2	1	0	1	2	3
11	Billericay Town	2	1	0	1	1	3
12	Dover	2	1	0	1	0	3
13	Farnborough	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Braintree	2	1	0	1	-3	3
15	Horsham	2	0	2	0	0	2
16	Chelmsford City	2	0	2	0	0	2
17	Dorking Wanderers	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Maidenhead	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Ebbsfleet United	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Slough Town	1	0	0	1	-2	0
21	Farnham Town	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Chesham United	2	0	0	2	-4	0
23	Walton & Hersham	2	0	0	2	-7	0
24	Hampton & Richmond	2	0	0	2	-8	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.