San Marcos de Arica vs Deportes Limache Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for San Marcos de Arica and 1.18 for Deportes Limache, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives San Marcos de Arica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

San Marcos de Arica or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

San Marcos de Arica win44%

Draw26%

Deportes Limache win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Deportes Limache away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Marcos de Arica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for San Marcos de Arica and 1.18 for Deportes Limache, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

San Marcos de Arica

Deportes Limache

2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs O'Higgins · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Iquique · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-25T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Colo Colo · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-06T00:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcos de Arica · 4-1 (W)
2026-07-01T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Coquimbo Unido · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-07-06T00:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 1-4 Deportes Limache (Copa Chile)
2026-06-20T00:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 1-3 Deportes Limache (Copa Chile)
2024-10-05T18:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 0-2 Deportes Limache (Primera B)
2024-05-21T00:30:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 3-1 Deportes Limache (Primera B)
2022-09-25T15:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 0-1 Deportes Limache (Segunda División)
2022-06-12T01:00:00.000Z · San Marcos de Arica 2-0 Deportes Limache (Segunda División)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.