San Martín Burzaco vs Deportivo Laferrere Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for San Martín Burzaco and 1.08 for Deportivo Laferrere, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives San Martín Burzaco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.

Model pick

San Martín Burzaco or Draw

69.7% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.34 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

San Martín Burzaco win42%

Draw27%

Deportivo Laferrere win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

1–112.9%
1–011.9%
0–19.6%
0–08.9%
2–18.6%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates San Martín Burzaco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for San Martín Burzaco and 1.08 for Deportivo Laferrere, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 44% and both teams to score at 49%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
San Martín Burzaco or Draw is the headline pick at 70% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

San Martín Burzaco

Deportivo Laferrere

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera B Metropolitana table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Excursionistas	30	16	8	6	22	56
2	Talleres Remedios	30	16	8	6	18	56
3	Deportivo Camioneros	30	15	10	5	17	55
4	Villa Dalmine	30	15	10	5	17	55
5	Arsenal Sarandi	30	14	11	5	17	53
6	Sportivo Italiano	30	14	10	6	14	52
7	Real Pilar	30	12	9	9	2	45
8	Deportivo Laferrere	30	11	9	10	-3	42
9	Deportivo Armenio	29	11	8	10	-1	41
10	Comunicaciones	30	10	10	10	2	40
11	Argentino de Merlo	30	10	9	11	0	39
12	Deportivo Merlo	30	9	11	10	-12	38
13	San Martín Burzaco	30	8	13	9	-2	37
14	Dock Sud	30	8	12	10	1	36
15	Argentino Quilmes	29	7	13	9	-3	34
16	Liniers	29	7	11	11	-8	32
17	Brown DE Adrogue	30	7	10	13	-12	31
18	Villa San Carlos	29	6	11	12	-7	29
19	Flandria	30	7	8	15	-13	29
20	UAI Urquiza	29	3	18	8	-10	27
21	Defensores Unidos	29	5	11	13	-11	26
22	Ituzaingó	30	1	10	19	-28	13

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.