Spokane Velocity vs One Knoxville Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Spokane Velocity and 1.36 for One Knoxville, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives One Knoxville the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.

Model pick

One Knoxville or Draw

64.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.36

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Spokane Velocity win35%

Draw26%

One Knoxville win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.4%
0–19.7%
1–09.1%
1–28.4%
2–18.0%

Why the model likes this

Spokane Velocity home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates One Knoxville to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 35% / 26% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Spokane Velocity and 1.36 for One Knoxville, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Spokane Velocity

2026-08-13T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Colorado Springs · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-26T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Fort Wayne · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-23T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Charlotte Independence · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-18T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Richmond Kickers · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Oakland Roots · 3-1 (W)

One Knoxville

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

USL League One table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Union Omaha	20	13	2	5	12	41
2	Charlotte Independence	19	12	3	4	16	39
3	Forward Madison	19	11	3	5	18	36
4	One Knoxville	19	11	3	5	12	36
5	Boise	21	10	4	7	2	34
6	Spokane Velocity	18	10	2	6	3	32
7	Alta	22	8	8	6	6	32
8	Chattanooga Red Wolves	17	9	1	7	6	28
9	Fort Wayne	19	7	6	6	3	27
10	Corpus Christi	20	6	8	6	-3	26
11	Portland Hearts of Pine	19	5	6	8	-4	21
12	Naples	19	6	2	11	-10	20
13	Westchester SC	19	5	4	10	1	19
14	Greenville Triumph	19	5	4	10	-11	19
15	Sarasota Paradise	19	5	3	11	-12	18
16	Richmond Kickers	19	5	3	11	-17	18
17	NY Cosmos	18	3	2	13	-22	11

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.