Stal Mielec vs Nieciecza Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.85 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Nieciecza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws roughly 54% of the time.

Model pick

Nieciecza to Win

46.0% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.85

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Stal Mielec win32%

Draw23%

Nieciecza win46%

Double chance 1X

54%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.7%
1–29.0%
2–17.3%
2–26.8%
0–16.5%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Nieciecza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 32% / 23% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Stal Mielec and 1.85 for Nieciecza, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Model confidence
Nieciecza to Win is the headline pick at 46% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Stal Mielec

Nieciecza

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

I Liga table

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wisla Krakow	34	20	11	3	40	71
2	Slask Wroclaw	34	17	11	6	22	62
3	Wieczysta Kraków	34	16	9	9	23	57
4	Chrobry Głogów	34	16	7	11	12	55
5	ŁKS Łódź	34	15	9	10	8	54
6	Polonia Warszawa	34	15	8	11	3	53
7	Ruch Chorzów	34	14	11	9	8	53
8	Miedz Legnica	34	15	7	12	-1	52
9	Puszcza Niepołomice	34	12	13	9	5	49
10	Polonia Bytom	34	13	8	13	6	47
11	Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki	34	11	12	11	-3	45
12	Odra Opole	34	11	11	12	-6	44
13	Stal Rzeszów	34	12	7	15	-11	43
14	Stal Mielec	34	10	6	18	-11	36
15	Pogoń Siedlce	34	9	9	16	-10	36
16	Znicz Pruszków	34	7	7	20	-28	28
17	Górnik Łęczna	34	5	12	17	-23	27
18	Tychy 71	34	5	8	21	-34	23

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.