Merkur-Arena · Analysis updated 01:53 UTC
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.27 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Lask Linz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.
Model pick
Lask Linz or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–112.7%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–28.3%
Why the model likes this
Sturm Graz home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lask Linz away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lask Linz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 30% / 28% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Sturm Graz and 1.27 for Lask Linz, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Recent form
Sturm Graz
- 2026-08-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs SCR Altach · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Fenerbahçe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-08T17:30:00.000Z · A vs TSV Hartberg · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs WSG Wattens · 1-1 (D)
Lask Linz
- 2026-08-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Ried · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria Vienna · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Grazer AK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kalsdorf · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-07-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lask Linz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 3 | Rapid Vienna | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Wolfsberger AC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Red Bull Salzburg | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Austria Lustenau | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | SCR Altach | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Grazer AK | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Ried | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | TSV Hartberg | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 12 | Austria Vienna | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.