Sunderland vs Leeds Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Sunderland and 3.00 for Leeds, a combined total of 5.50. That distribution gives Leeds the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 91% for over 2.5 goals and 87% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.

Model pick

Leeds to Win

49.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

2.50 – 3.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Sunderland win33%

Draw17%

Leeds win50%

Double chance 1X

51%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals97%

Over 2.5 goals91%

Over 3.5 goals79%

Both teams to score87%

Correct score

2–25.7%
2–35.7%
3–24.8%
3–34.8%
1–24.6%

Why the model likes this

Sunderland home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leeds to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 33% / 17% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for Sunderland and 3.00 for Leeds, a combined 5.50 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 91% and both teams to score at 87%, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.

Recent form

Sunderland

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rennes · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-08T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-30T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Leeds · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 2-4 (L)

Leeds

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League - Summer Series table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Liverpool	1	1	0	2	3
2	Leeds	0	0	0	0	0
3	Wrexham	0	0	0	0	0
4	Sunderland	1	0	1	-2	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.