Sutton Utd vs Hartlepool Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sutton Utd and 0.99 for Hartlepool, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Sutton Utd the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Sutton Utd or Draw

72.0% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.31 – 0.99

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Sutton Utd win44%

Draw28%

Hartlepool win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–013.2%
1–113.0%
0–010.0%
0–19.9%
2–08.7%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates Sutton Utd to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 28% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.31 goals for Sutton Utd and 0.99 for Hartlepool, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 40% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Model confidence
Sutton Utd or Draw is the headline pick at 72% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Sutton Utd

Hartlepool

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Harrogate Town	2	2	0	0	5	6
2	AFC Hornchurch	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Sutton Utd	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Southend	2	2	0	0	3	6
5	Hartlepool	2	2	0	0	3	6
6	Forest Green	2	2	0	0	2	6
7	Boreham Wood	2	1	1	0	2	4
8	AFC Fylde	2	1	1	0	1	4
9	Gateshead	2	1	0	1	1	3
10	Boston United	2	1	0	1	1	3
11	Worthing	2	1	0	1	0	3
12	Eastleigh	2	1	0	1	0	3
13	Aldershot Town	2	1	0	1	0	3
14	Kidderminster Harriers	2	1	0	1	-2	3
15	Yeovil Town	2	0	2	0	0	2
16	Tamworth	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Carlisle	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Scunthorpe	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Wealdstone	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	FC Halifax Town	2	0	0	2	-3	0
21	Altrincham	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Barrow	2	0	0	2	-3	0
23	Solihull Moors	2	0	0	2	-5	0
24	Woking	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.