Denmark · 2. Division · Promotion Group - 3116:00

12

Friday, 29 May 2026

RoskildeDWD

· Analysis updated 03:29 UTC

Thisted FC vs Roskilde Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.31 expected goals for Thisted FC and 1.87 for Roskilde, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives Roskilde the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws roughly 49% of the time.

Model pick

Roskilde to Win

50.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.31 – 1.87

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Thisted FC win27%
Draw23%
Roskilde win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Over 3.5 goals39%
Both teams to score62%

Correct score

  • 1–110.2%
  • 1–29.5%
  • 0–17.8%
  • 0–27.3%
  • 2–16.7%

Why the model likes this

  • Thisted FC home form

    6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Roskilde to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 27% / 23% / 51% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.31 goals for Thisted FC and 1.87 for Roskilde, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Thisted FC

  • 2026-08-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs VSK Århus · 1-3 (L)
  • 2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FA 2000 · 0-1 (L)
  • 2026-08-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Aabybro · 9-1 (W)
  • 2026-08-01T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Middelfart · 1-4 (L)
  • 2026-07-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Brabrand · 2-1 (W)

Roskilde

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    2. Division table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1VSK Århus330079
    2Middelfart321077
    3Nykobing FC321057
    4Roskilde312015
    5Naestved312015
    6Fremad Amager3111-14
    7HIK3111-14
    8Skive3102-13
    9FA 20003102-23
    10B 933102-33
    11Thisted FC3003-60
    12Brabrand3003-70

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.