União de Leiria vs Penafiel Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for União de Leiria and 1.10 for Penafiel, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives União de Leiria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

União de Leiria or Draw

70.0% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

União de Leiria win43%

Draw27%

Penafiel win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.7%
1–011.6%
0–19.3%
2–18.8%
0–08.4%

Why the model likes this

Penafiel away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates União de Leiria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 27% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for União de Leiria and 1.10 for Penafiel, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 45% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Recent form

União de Leiria

Penafiel

2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Torreense · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Portimonense · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-24T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Leganes · 0-2 (L)
2026-07-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Famalicao · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-18T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória SC · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.