Estadio Municipal de San Felipe · Analysis updated 03:53 UTC
Union San Felipe vs San Luis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Union San Felipe and 1.69 for San Luis, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives San Luis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws roughly 46% of the time.
Model pick
San Luis to Win
54.1% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.7%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–06.9%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Luis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 22% / 24% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Union San Felipe and 1.69 for San Luis, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 51%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
San Luis to Win is the headline pick at 54% with low confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Union San Felipe
San Luis
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 35 |
| 2 | Santiago Wanderers | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 34 |
| 3 | Magallanes | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 32 |
| 4 | Union Espanola | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 31 |
| 5 | Antofagasta | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 30 |
| 6 | San Marcos de Arica | 20 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 30 |
| 7 | D. Puerto Montt | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 30 |
| 8 | San Luis | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 29 |
| 9 | Deportes Copiapo | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | -3 | 27 |
| 10 | Recoleta | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 26 |
| 11 | Deportes Temuco | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 24 |
| 12 | Deportes Iquique | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 21 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 19 | 4 | 8 | 7 | -10 | 20 |
| 14 | Union San Felipe | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -19 | 20 |
| 15 | Deportes Santa Cruz | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -10 | 16 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 20 | 0 | 6 | 14 | -20 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.