Urawa vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Urawa and 2.82 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, a combined total of 4.41. That distribution gives Sanfrecce Hiroshima the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws roughly 37% of the time.

Model pick

Sanfrecce Hiroshima to Win

63.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.58 – 2.82

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Urawa win20%

Draw17%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima win63%

Double chance 1X

37%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals81%

Over 3.5 goals64%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

1–27.7%
1–37.2%
2–26.1%
2–35.7%
1–15.5%

Why the model likes this

Urawa home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 20% / 17% / 63% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Urawa and 2.82 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima, a combined 4.41 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 81% and both teams to score at 75%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Recent form

Urawa

2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-07T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Gamba Osaka · 3-4 (L)
2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Omiya Ardija · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-21T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-17T08:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Ryukyu · 4-5 (L)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	2	2	0	0	8	6
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2	2	0	0	6	6
3	Kashiwa Reysol	2	2	0	0	3	6
4	Kashima	2	2	0	0	2	6
5	Gamba Osaka	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	Vissel Kobe	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Avispa Fukuoka	2	1	0	1	2	3
8	Yokohama F. Marinos	2	1	0	1	0	3
9	Fagiano Okayama	2	1	0	1	0	3
10	V-varen Nagasaki	2	1	0	1	0	3
11	Shimizu S-pulse	2	1	0	1	0	3
12	Cerezo Osaka	2	1	0	1	-2	3
13	Kawasaki Frontale	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Kyoto Sanga	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Mito Hollyhock	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Tokyo Verdy	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	FC Tokyo	2	0	1	1	-4	1
18	Nagoya Grampus	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Urawa	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	JEF United Chiba	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.