Villarreal vs Espanyol Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.18 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Villarreal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Villarreal or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Villarreal win44%

Draw26%

Espanyol win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Villarreal home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Espanyol away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Villarreal

2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Galatasaray · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-05T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Ula · 3-0 (W)

Espanyol

2026-08-08T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Coventry · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Middlesbrough · 3-3 (D)
2026-07-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Burnley · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-25T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-21T17:30:00.000Z · H vs PAU · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-02-09T20:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 4-1 Espanyol (La Liga)
2025-11-08T20:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 2-0 Espanyol (La Liga)
2025-04-27T14:15:00.000Z · Villarreal 1-0 Espanyol (La Liga)
2024-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 2-1 Espanyol (La Liga)
2023-04-27T17:30:00.000Z · Villarreal 4-2 Espanyol (La Liga)
2022-11-09T19:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 1-0 Espanyol (La Liga)
2022-02-27T13:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 5-1 Espanyol (La Liga)
2021-08-21T17:30:00.000Z · Villarreal 0-0 Espanyol (La Liga)
2020-01-19T15:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 1-2 Espanyol (La Liga)
2019-10-20T14:00:00.000Z · Villarreal 1-0 Espanyol (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Alaves	1	1	0	3	3
2	Sevilla	1	1	0	1	3
3	Barcelona	0	0	0	0	0
4	Real Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
5	Villarreal	0	0	0	0	0
6	Atletico Madrid	0	0	0	0	0
7	Real Betis	0	0	0	0	0
8	Celta Vigo	0	0	0	0	0
9	Valencia	0	0	0	0	0
10	Real Sociedad	0	0	0	0	0
11	Espanyol	0	0	0	0	0
12	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0
13	Elche	0	0	0	0	0
14	Levante	0	0	0	0	0
15	Osasuna	0	0	0	0	0
16	Racing Santander	0	0	0	0	0
17	Deportivo La Coruna	0	0	0	0	0
18	Malaga	0	0	0	0	0
19	Rayo Vallecano	1	0	1	-1	0
20	Getafe	1	0	1	-3	0

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.