Lemonsoft Stadion · Analysis updated 03:38 UTC
VPS II vs JS Hercules Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.02 expected goals for VPS II and 1.18 for JS Hercules, a combined total of 4.20. That distribution gives VPS II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws roughly 26% of the time.
Model pick
VPS II to Win
74.2% probability
Expected goals
3.02 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
26%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.1%
- 2–18.1%
- 3–06.9%
- 2–06.8%
- 4–16.1%
Why the model likes this
VPS II home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 6 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VPS II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 14% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.02 goals for VPS II and 1.18 for JS Hercules, a combined 4.20 — an open game on paper.
Odds comparison
Indicative prices for the main markets.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Home | 1.20 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Draw | 6.40 | 10Bet |
| Match Result | Away | 7.50 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Over 4.5 | 1.85 | 10Bet |
| Goals | Under 4.5 | 1.75 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Draw | 1.01 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Home/Away | 1.03 | 10Bet |
| Double Chance | Draw/Away | 3.40 | 10Bet |
Recent form
VPS II
- 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs JS Hercules · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Vaajakoski · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaro 2 · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs JBK · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SJK-juniorit · 6-2 (W)
JS Hercules
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · VPS II 3-1 JS Hercules (Kakkonen - Lohko C)
- 2026-06-05T15:30:00.000Z · VPS II 5-1 JS Hercules (Kakkonen - Lohko C)
- 2025-07-13T14:00:00.000Z · VPS II 8-0 JS Hercules (Kakkonen - Lohko C)
- 2025-05-11T12:00:00.000Z · VPS II 2-1 JS Hercules (Kakkonen - Lohko C)
- 2019-07-20T16:00:00.000Z · VPS II 1-5 JS Hercules (Kakkonen - Lohko C)
- 2019-05-12T15:30:00.000Z · VPS II 1-3 JS Hercules (Kakkonen - Lohko C)
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.