· Analysis updated 04:40 UTC
Warta Sieradz vs Olimpia Elbląg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Warta Sieradz and 1.63 for Olimpia Elbląg, a combined total of 3.36. That distribution gives Warta Sieradz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
Warta Sieradz or Draw
63.4% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.0%
Why the model likes this
Olimpia Elbląg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Warta Sieradz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 23% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Warta Sieradz and 1.63 for Olimpia Elbląg, a combined 3.36 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Recent form
Warta Sieradz
Olimpia Elbląg
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Olimpia Zambrów · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-07-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Płock II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Grom Nowy Staw · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wda Świecie · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszlo | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Pelikan Łowicz | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Swit | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 4 | Wigry Suwałki | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Wisła Płock II | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Olimpia Elbląg | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Jagiellonia II | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Widzew II | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Warta Sieradz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Olimpia Zambrów | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Mławianka Mława | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | ŁKS Łódź II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Łomża | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 18 | Troszyn | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.