England · Non League Premier - Isthmian · Regular Season - 4014:00

20

Saturday, 11 April 2026

Acclaim Handling Community Stadium · Analysis updated 23:45 UTC

Welling United vs Dulwich Hamlet Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.79 expected goals for Welling United and 1.83 for Dulwich Hamlet, a combined total of 3.62. That distribution gives Dulwich Hamlet the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.

Model pick

Dulwich Hamlet or Draw

61.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.79 – 1.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Welling United win38%
Draw22%
Dulwich Hamlet win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals70%
Over 3.5 goals49%
Both teams to score70%

Correct score

  • 1–18.8%
  • 1–28.0%
  • 2–17.9%
  • 2–27.2%
  • 0–14.9%

Why the model likes this

  • Welling United home form

    13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Dulwich Hamlet to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 38% / 22% / 40% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.79 goals for Welling United and 1.83 for Dulwich Hamlet, a combined 3.62 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 70%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Recent form

Welling United

  • 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stanway Rovers · 4-0 (W)
  • 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Leatherhead · 1-4 (L)
  • 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Whitehawk · 2-0 (W)
  • 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Folkestone Invicta · 0-2 (L)
  • 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Braintree · 3-2 (W)

Dulwich Hamlet

    Head-to-head

    Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

    Non League Premier - Isthmian table

    Full league page →
    #TeamPWDLGDPts
    1Carshalton Athletic330059
    2Dartford330039
    3Leatherhead321047
    4Eastbourne Borough321027
    5Dulwich Hamlet320166
    6Enfield Town320146
    7Welling United320136
    8Chatham Town320126
    9St Albans City320116
    10Burgess Hill Town311114
    11Aveley311104
    12Lewes3111-24
    13Ramsgate310203
    14Brentwood Town310203
    15Maldon & Tiptree3102-63
    16Cray Wanderers3021-12
    17Wingate & Finchley3021-22
    18Cheshunt3021-22
    19Whitehawk3012-31
    20Whyteleafe3012-51
    21Stanway Rovers3012-61
    22Three Bridges3003-40

    Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.