Zaglebie Lubin vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.18 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Zaglebie Lubin the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.

Model pick

Zaglebie Lubin or Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Model version

poisson-baseline-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Zaglebie Lubin win44%

Draw26%

Pogon Szczecin win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.2%
1–010.4%
2–19.0%
0–18.3%
2–07.7%

Why the model likes this

Zaglebie Lubin home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pogon Szczecin away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Recent form

Zaglebie Lubin

2026-08-15T12:45:00.000Z · H vs Slask Wroclaw · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-02T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Legia Warszawa · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Piast Gliwice · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-18T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Chrobry Głogów · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians 1905 · 0-2 (L)

Pogon Szczecin

2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Motor Lublin · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Cracovia Krakow · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-24T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Legia Warszawa · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-15T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-04T13:00:00.000Z · Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Pogon Szczecin (Friendlies Clubs)
2026-05-15T16:00:00.000Z · Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa)
2025-11-24T18:00:00.000Z · Zaglebie Lubin 1-5 Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa)
2025-02-01T19:15:00.000Z · Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa)
2024-12-04T20:00:00.000Z · Zaglebie Lubin 3-4 Pogon Szczecin (Cup)
2024-07-28T12:45:00.000Z · Zaglebie Lubin 2-2 Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa)
2024-03-10T14:00:00.000Z · Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa)
2023-09-03T13:00:00.000Z · Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa)
2023-03-11T16:30:00.000Z · Zaglebie Lubin 0-1 Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa)
2022-08-27T15:30:00.000Z · Zaglebie Lubin 0-3 Pogon Szczecin (Ekstraklasa)

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.