· Analysis updated 00:24 UTC
ACV vs DVS 33 Ermelo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for ACV and 1.27 for DVS 33 Ermelo, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives ACV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws roughly 48% of the time.
Model pick
ACV to Win
51.9% probability
Expected goals
1.89 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.0%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–26.5%
Why the model likes this
DVS 33 Ermelo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates ACV to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for ACV and 1.27 for DVS 33 Ermelo, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Recent form
ACV
DVS 33 Ermelo
- 2026-08-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Genemuiden · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T12:30:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Rijnvogels · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rijnvogels · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-23T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Huizen · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Derde Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior '31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | Purmersteijn | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Hoogeveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Harkemase Boys | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | SC Genemuiden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | ACV | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sparta Nijkerk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | Sportlust '46 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Dovo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Staphorst | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | ADO '20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Hercules | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | SVZW | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | Hollandia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | DVS 33 Ermelo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | TEC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | VV Scherpenzeel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 18 | Eemdijk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 1 | Dongen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Lisse | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Noordwijk | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Vvsb | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Gemert | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Rijnvogels | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Excelsior Maassluis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 8 | UDI '19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Roosendaal | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | EVV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Groene Ster | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | UNA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | GOES | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | TOGB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Poortugaal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Blauw Geel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Achilles Veen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | Zwaluwen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.