WerkTalent Stadion · Referee J. Manschot · Analysis updated 20:39 UTC
ADO Den Haag vs Groningen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.61 for Groningen, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Groningen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws roughly 58% of the time.
Model pick
Groningen or Draw
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–17.8%
- 1–06.8%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Groningen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 34% / 24% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.61 for Groningen, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
Groningen or Draw is the headline pick at 66% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
ADO Den Haag
Groningen
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 2 | Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Telstar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 17 | Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.