England · National League · Regular Season - 418:45
BarrowLL

18:45 UTC

Friday, 28 August 2026

Holker Street · Analysis updated 00:26 UTC

Barrow vs Yeovil Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Barrow and 1.37 for Yeovil Town, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Yeovil Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws roughly 60% of the time.

Model pick

Yeovil Town or Draw

66.3% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.37

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Barrow win34%
Draw26%
Yeovil Town win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

66%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Both teams to score53%

Correct score

  • 1–112.5%
  • 0–110.2%
  • 1–09.2%
  • 1–28.6%
  • 2–17.7%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Yeovil Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 34% / 26% / 40% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.23 goals for Barrow and 1.37 for Yeovil Town, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

  • Model confidence

    Yeovil Town or Draw is the headline pick at 66% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Barrow

    Yeovil Town

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.