· Analysis updated 04:35 UTC
Basingstoke Town vs Evesham United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for Basingstoke Town and 1.87 for Evesham United, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Basingstoke Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.
Model pick
Basingstoke Town or Draw
62.1% probability
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.1%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.0%
Why the model likes this
Basingstoke Town home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Basingstoke Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 21% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.94 goals for Basingstoke Town and 1.87 for Evesham United, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 72%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Recent form
Basingstoke Town
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Poole Town · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hanwell Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Evesham United · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Chesham United · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Slough Town · 4-2 (W)
Evesham United
- 2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chichester City · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Frome Town · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Basingstoke Town · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-07-31T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Cleeve · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cheltenham · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Southern South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chertsey Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Bath City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Frome Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Taunton Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Hanworth Villa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Evesham United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Hanwell Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Yate Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Plymouth Parkway | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 11 | Sholing | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Chippenham Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Bracknell Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | Basingstoke Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Berkhamsted | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Poole Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 17 | Chichester City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Havant & Wville | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 19 | Malvern Town | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Gloucester City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Gosport Borough | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 22 | Wimborne Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.