Brown DE Adrogue vs San Martín Burzaco Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.77 expected goals for Brown DE Adrogue and 0.90 for San Martín Burzaco, a combined total of 1.67. That distribution gives San Martín Burzaco the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws roughly 64% of the time.

Model pick

San Martín Burzaco or Draw

70.7% probability

High confidence

Expected goals

0.77 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Brown DE Adrogue win29%

Draw34%

San Martín Burzaco win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

66%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals50%

Over 2.5 goals24%

Over 3.5 goals9%

Both teams to score32%

Correct score

0–018.8%
0–116.9%
1–014.5%
1–113.0%
0–27.6%

Why the model likes this

Most likely outcome
The model rates San Martín Burzaco to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 36%, against 29% / 34% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.77 goals for Brown DE Adrogue and 0.90 for San Martín Burzaco, a combined 1.67 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 24% and both teams to score at 32%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Model confidence
San Martín Burzaco or Draw is the headline pick at 71% with high confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Brown DE Adrogue

San Martín Burzaco

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera B Metropolitana table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Excursionistas	30	16	8	6	22	56
2	Talleres Remedios	30	16	8	6	18	56
3	Deportivo Camioneros	30	15	10	5	17	55
4	Villa Dalmine	30	15	10	5	17	55
5	Arsenal Sarandi	30	14	11	5	17	53
6	Sportivo Italiano	30	14	10	6	14	52
7	Real Pilar	30	12	9	9	2	45
8	Deportivo Laferrere	30	11	9	10	-3	42
9	Deportivo Armenio	29	11	8	10	-1	41
10	Comunicaciones	30	10	10	10	2	40
11	Argentino de Merlo	30	10	9	11	0	39
12	Deportivo Merlo	30	9	11	10	-12	38
13	San Martín Burzaco	30	8	13	9	-2	37
14	Dock Sud	30	8	12	10	1	36
15	Argentino Quilmes	29	7	13	9	-3	34
16	Liniers	29	7	11	11	-8	32
17	Brown DE Adrogue	30	7	10	13	-12	31
18	Villa San Carlos	29	6	11	12	-7	29
19	Flandria	30	7	8	15	-13	29
20	UAI Urquiza	29	3	18	8	-10	27
21	Defensores Unidos	29	5	11	13	-11	26
22	Ituzaingó	30	1	10	19	-28	13

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.