Turf Moor · Analysis updated 05:13 UTC
Burnley vs Blackburn Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Burnley and 1.18 for Blackburn, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Burnley the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Burnley or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Burnley home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Burnley to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Burnley and 1.18 for Blackburn, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Recent form
Burnley
- 2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Notts County · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Torino · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-16T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Salt Lake · 1-4 (L)
Blackburn
Head-to-head
- 2025-01-04T12:30:00.000Z · Burnley 1-0 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2024-08-31T11:30:00.000Z · Burnley 1-1 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2023-04-25T19:00:00.000Z · Burnley 1-0 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2022-11-13T12:30:00.000Z · Burnley 3-0 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2017-08-23T18:45:00.000Z · Burnley 2-0 Blackburn (League Cup)
- 2016-03-05T12:30:00.000Z · Burnley 1-0 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2015-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · Burnley 1-0 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2014-03-09T12:30:00.000Z · Burnley 2-1 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2013-09-14T11:15:00.000Z · Burnley 1-1 Blackburn (Championship)
- 2013-03-17T12:30:00.000Z · Burnley 1-1 Blackburn (Championship)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | QPR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Bolton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Charlton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | West Brom | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Swansea | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Sheffield Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | West Ham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Burnley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Watford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Derby | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Norwich | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Preston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Portsmouth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Bristol City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.