Canuelas vs El Porvenir Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Canuelas and 0.59 for El Porvenir, a combined total of 1.75. That distribution gives Canuelas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws roughly 50% of the time.

Model pick

Canuelas to Win

49.6% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.16 – 0.59

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Canuelas win50%

Draw32%

El Porvenir win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals52%

Over 2.5 goals26%

Over 3.5 goals10%

Both teams to score31%

Correct score

1–020.1%
0–017.4%
1–111.9%
2–011.6%
0–110.3%

Why the model likes this

Canuelas home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Canuelas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 32% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Canuelas and 0.59 for El Porvenir, a combined 1.75 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 26% and both teams to score at 31%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.

Recent form

Canuelas

2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Estrella Del Sur · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Atlas · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Yupanqui · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Muñiz · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Leandro N. Alem · 1-0 (W)

El Porvenir

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera C table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sacachispas	23	12	5	6	13	41
2	Estrella Del Sur	24	10	8	6	5	38
3	Berazategui	23	9	9	5	8	36
4	Lugano	23	9	9	5	7	36
5	Puerto Nuevo	24	8	11	5	0	35
6	Centro Español	23	9	7	7	8	34
7	Mercedes	23	8	9	6	9	33
8	Victoriano Arenas	24	7	11	6	4	32
9	Juventud Unida	22	7	8	7	3	29
10	Leandro N. Alem	23	7	6	10	-14	27
11	Defensores de Cambaceres	23	6	7	10	-7	25
12	Argentino Rosario	23	3	12	8	-6	21
13	JJ Urquiza	23	3	12	8	-10	21
14	Deportivo Paraguayo	23	4	8	11	-17	20
1	Lujan	23	12	6	5	13	42
2	Canuelas	24	10	9	5	8	39
3	Yupanqui	24	8	9	7	5	33
4	Deportivo Español	23	7	12	4	4	33
5	General Lamadrid	24	8	9	7	-3	33
6	Sportivo Barracas	22	9	4	9	4	31
7	Leones de Rosario	22	7	10	5	0	31
8	Central Cordoba	23	7	8	8	1	29
9	Atletico Atlas	23	7	8	8	-2	29
10	Central Ballester	23	7	5	11	-4	26
11	El Porvenir	23	4	14	5	-4	26
12	Fénix	23	6	7	10	-6	25
13	Deportivo Muñiz	22	4	10	8	-5	22
14	Claypole	23	5	7	11	-14	22

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.