Celtic vs Dunfermline Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Celtic and 1.48 for Dunfermline, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Celtic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

Celtic to Win

45.4% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

1.80 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Celtic win45%

Draw23%

Dunfermline win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.0%
2–19.0%
1–27.4%
1–06.8%
2–26.7%

Why the model likes this

Celtic home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Celtic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Celtic and 1.48 for Dunfermline, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 64% and both teams to score at 64%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Recent form

Celtic

2026-08-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Dundee Utd · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-09T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kilmarnock · 5-1 (W)
2026-08-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Dundee · 1-0 (W)
2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 2-2 (D)
2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Middlesbrough · 1-1 (D)

Dunfermline

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.