Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.15 expected goals for Chelsea and 2.92 for Tottenham, a combined total of 6.07. That distribution gives Chelsea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 93% for over 2.5 goals and 90% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws roughly 55% of the time.

Model pick

Chelsea to Win

45.2% probability

Low confidence

Expected goals

3.15 – 2.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Chelsea win45%

Draw17%

Tottenham win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals98%

Over 2.5 goals93%

Over 3.5 goals85%

Both teams to score90%

Correct score

3–25.1%
3–35.0%
2–24.9%
2–34.8%
4–24.0%

Why the model likes this

Chelsea home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tottenham away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chelsea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 17% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.15 goals for Chelsea and 2.92 for Tottenham, a combined 6.07 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Chelsea

2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Johor Darul Takzim FC · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs AC Milan · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-01T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham · 1-2 (L)

Tottenham

2026-08-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-29T09:45:00.000Z · H vs Sydney · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-26T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.