Concepción vs Deportes Limache Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.49 expected goals for Concepción and 1.55 for Deportes Limache, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Deportes Limache the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws roughly 61% of the time.

Model pick

Deportes Limache or Draw

63.2% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.49 – 1.55

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Concepción win37%

Draw24%

Deportes Limache win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–111.0%
1–28.5%
2–18.3%
0–17.4%
1–07.1%

Why the model likes this

Concepción home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportes Limache away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportes Limache to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 37% / 24% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.49 goals for Concepción and 1.55 for Deportes Limache, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.

Recent form

Concepción

2026-08-09T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Universidad de Concepcion · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs U. Catolica · 3-0 (W)
2026-07-27T00:30:00.000Z · H vs O'Higgins · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs D. Puerto Montt · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-06T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportes Temuco · 2-0 (W)

Deportes Limache

2026-08-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs O'Higgins · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-06T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportes Iquique · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-25T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Colo Colo · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-06T00:00:00.000Z · H vs San Marcos de Arica · 4-1 (W)
2026-07-01T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Coquimbo Unido · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Colo Colo	18	15	0	3	21	45
2	Universidad de Chile	19	10	6	3	13	36
3	U. Catolica	18	9	3	6	14	30
4	Everton de Vina	19	7	6	6	6	27
5	Palestino	18	8	3	7	0	27
6	Nublense	17	6	8	3	1	26
7	Coquimbo Unido	17	7	4	6	3	25
8	Deportes Limache	18	7	3	8	5	24
9	Huachipato	18	7	3	8	-4	24
10	D. La Serena	19	5	8	6	-3	23
11	Concepción	18	7	2	9	-3	23
12	O'Higgins	18	7	2	9	-6	23
13	A. Italiano	19	5	6	8	-3	21
14	Universidad de Concepcion	18	5	4	9	-17	19
15	Cobresal	18	5	2	11	-8	17
16	Union La Calera	18	3	4	11	-19	13

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.