· Analysis updated 03:45 UTC
Concón National vs Provincial Ovalle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Concón National and 0.73 for Provincial Ovalle, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Concón National the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws roughly 29% of the time.
Model pick
Concón National to Win
70.7% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.9%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.4%
- 1–18.7%
Why the model likes this
Concón National home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Concón National to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 18% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Concón National and 0.73 for Provincial Ovalle, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 46%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Recent form
Concón National
- 2026-08-08T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Provincial Osorno · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Santiago City · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-07-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Municipal Salamanca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Colina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real San Joaquín · 1-0 (W)
Provincial Ovalle
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Provincial Osorno | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | Municipal Salamanca | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 22 |
| 3 | Colchagua | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 22 |
| 4 | Concón National | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Santiago City | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 20 |
| 6 | Linares Unido | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Trasandino | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 8 | General Velásquez | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 16 |
| 9 | Real San Joaquín | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Lota Schwager | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 |
| 11 | Colina | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | Deportes Rengo | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 11 |
| 13 | Santiago Morning | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Provincial Ovalle | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -13 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.