Cotton Bowl · Analysis updated 01:50 UTC
Dallas Trinity W vs Carolina Ascent W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Dallas Trinity W and 1.18 for Carolina Ascent W, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Dallas Trinity W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Dallas Trinity W or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Dallas Trinity W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dallas Trinity W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Dallas Trinity W and 1.18 for Carolina Ascent W, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Recent form
Dallas Trinity W
- 2026-05-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Lexington W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T00:30:00.000Z · H vs Fort Lauderdale United W · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-05-09T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Tampa Bay Sun W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-01T23:00:00.000Z · A vs DC Power W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-25T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Brooklyn W · 1-1 (D)
Carolina Ascent W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
USL Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Ascent W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Sun W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Brooklyn W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Dallas Trinity W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Lexington W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | DC Power W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Fort Lauderdale United W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Sporting JAX W | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.