Deportivo Merlo vs Real Pilar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.26 expected goals for Deportivo Merlo and 1.44 for Real Pilar, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Real Pilar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws roughly 59% of the time.

Model pick

Real Pilar or Draw

66.9% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.26 – 1.44

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Deportivo Merlo win33%

Draw26%

Real Pilar win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–19.7%
1–28.8%
1–08.5%
2–17.7%

Why the model likes this

Real Pilar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Pilar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 33% / 26% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.26 goals for Deportivo Merlo and 1.44 for Real Pilar, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Recent form

Deportivo Merlo

Real Pilar

2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Flandria · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Argentino Quilmes · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensores Unidos · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Comunicaciones · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dock Sud · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera B Metropolitana table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Excursionistas	30	16	8	6	22	56
2	Talleres Remedios	30	16	8	6	18	56
3	Deportivo Camioneros	30	15	10	5	17	55
4	Villa Dalmine	30	15	10	5	17	55
5	Arsenal Sarandi	30	14	11	5	17	53
6	Sportivo Italiano	30	14	10	6	14	52
7	Real Pilar	30	12	9	9	2	45
8	Deportivo Laferrere	30	11	9	10	-3	42
9	Deportivo Armenio	29	11	8	10	-1	41
10	Comunicaciones	30	10	10	10	2	40
11	Argentino de Merlo	30	10	9	11	0	39
12	Deportivo Merlo	30	9	11	10	-12	38
13	San Martín Burzaco	30	8	13	9	-2	37
14	Dock Sud	30	8	12	10	1	36
15	Argentino Quilmes	29	7	13	9	-3	34
16	Liniers	29	7	11	11	-8	32
17	Brown DE Adrogue	30	7	10	13	-12	31
18	Villa San Carlos	29	6	11	12	-7	29
19	Flandria	30	7	8	15	-13	29
20	UAI Urquiza	29	3	18	8	-10	27
21	Defensores Unidos	29	5	11	13	-11	26
22	Ituzaingó	30	1	10	19	-28	13

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.